Global Walnut Export Market: Leading Exporters & Key Supplying Nations

The global walnut export market is a dynamic and evolving sector, driven by increasing consumer demand for healthy, nutrient-dense foods and the strategic efforts of key supplying nations. Walnuts, prized for their rich flavor, versatility, and health benefits, have become a staple in diets worldwide, from culinary applications to snack products. This blog delves into the intricacies of the global walnut trade, highlighting the leading exporters, emerging players, and the factors shaping this vibrant market. With a focus on quality, quantity, and sustainability, we explore how nations are positioning themselves to meet global demand while navigating challenges like climate variability, trade policies, and competition.

Walnuts have carved out a significant niche in the global agricultural trade due to their nutritional profile, which includes omega-3 fatty acids, antioxidants, and essential vitamins. As health-conscious consumers increasingly seek plant-based and nutrient-rich foods, walnut demand has surged, particularly in regions like Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. The global walnut market was valued at approximately USD 8.7 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.2% through 2033. This growth is fueled by both shelled and in-shell walnut exports, with shelled walnuts accounting for over 65% of the total export value in 2023, reflecting their convenience for food manufacturers and consumers.

The walnut export market is characterized by a concentrated group of leading exporters who dominate due to favorable climates, advanced agricultural practices, and robust trade networks. However, emerging exporters are gaining ground, leveraging government support and investments in technology to compete in high-value markets. The interplay of established and new players creates a competitive landscape where quality, sustainability, and market access are critical differentiators.

Leading Exporters: The Powerhouses of Walnut Trade

United States

The United States, particularly California, reigns supreme in the global walnut export market. In 2023, the U.S. exported walnuts worth over USD 1.2 billion, accounting for nearly 30% of global walnut exports by value. California produces 99% of U.S. walnuts and over 30% of the world’s supply, benefiting from a Mediterranean climate, fertile soils, and advanced farming techniques. The U.S. excels in exporting high-quality shelled walnuts, which are in demand for their uniform kernel size, light color, and stringent quality controls. Key markets include the European Union, Turkey, India, and the United Arab Emirates, with Turkey alone importing USD 83.3 million worth of in-shell walnuts in 2023.

Despite its dominance, the U.S. faces challenges such as reduced bearing acreage due to water constraints and rising production costs. A 19% production drop in 2024, attributed to warm winters and extreme summer heat, tightened supply and drove prices to USD 1,720 per metric ton, nearly doubling from 2023. However, the U.S. maintains a competitive edge through innovations like optical graders and vacuum packaging, which enhance shelf life and quality for export markets. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s “healthy” designation for walnuts in 2024 further bolsters consumer appeal, particularly in premium snacking and plant-based food sectors.

China

China is the world’s largest walnut producer, contributing approximately 1.4 million metric tons in the 2023/2024 season, over 52% of global production. While much of China’s output is consumed domestically, its export market has grown significantly, with USD 276.6 million in in-shell walnuts and USD 228.9 million in shelled walnuts exported in 2023. China’s exports have surged by 56% since 2019, driven by investments in high-yielding varieties and processing infrastructure. Key destinations include Europe, Turkey, and the UAE, where Chinese walnuts compete with U.S. and Chilean supplies.

China’s strength lies in its ability to produce large volumes at competitive prices, though its walnuts are sometimes perceived as lower in quality compared to U.S. or Chilean varieties due to variations in flavor and kernel consistency. To address this, Chinese producers are adopting certifications like GlobalG.A.P. to meet the stringent standards of premium markets. Challenges such as domestic demand pressure and logistical constraints limit China’s export potential, but its role as a gap-filler during supply shortages, such as the 2024 U.S. and Chilean production drops, underscores its growing influence.

Chile

Chile is a major player in the walnut export market, with USD 247.2 million in in-shell walnuts and USD 237.6 million in shelled walnuts exported in 2023. The country benefits from a counter-seasonal harvest, which allows it to supply markets when Northern Hemisphere producers are off-season. Chile’s walnuts are known for their high quality, with consistent kernel sizes and low moisture content, making them popular in Europe and East Asia. However, adverse weather conditions, including delayed harvests and a 20-30% production drop in 2024, have impacted export volumes. Optimistic forecasts for the upcoming season, driven by favorable spring weather, suggest a recovery to 7,000-8,000 kilograms per hectare.

Chile’s export strategy focuses on quality and sustainability, with investments in eco-friendly farming practices and certifications to access high-value markets. The country faces competition from the U.S. and China but maintains a strong position due to its reliable supply chains and proximity to Asian markets. Chile’s export growth is expected to decelerate slightly, but its role as a key supplier remains robust.

Mexico

Mexico has emerged as a significant walnut exporter, with USD 506.5 million in shelled walnuts and USD 74.9 million in in-shell walnuts exported in 2023. The country’s 176,893 metric tons of production stabilizes regional supply, particularly for North American markets. Mexico’s walnuts are valued for their quality and affordability, with key destinations including the U.S., Canada, and Europe. Despite a 27.6% decline in export value since 2019, Mexico’s proximity to the U.S. and favorable trade agreements under the USMCA enhance its competitiveness.

Mexican exporters face challenges such as water scarcity and rising input costs, but government support for orchard expansion and modern irrigation systems is boosting production. Mexico’s focus on shelled walnuts aligns with the global trend toward ready-to-eat products, positioning it as a key player in the processed food and snack industries.

Germany

Germany, while not a major producer, plays a pivotal role as a walnut exporter, with USD 121.3 million in shelled walnuts exported in 2023. The country serves as a re-export hub for European markets, importing walnuts from the U.S., Chile, and China, and redistributing them across the EU. Germany’s exports grew by 7.3% since 2019, driven by demand for high-quality kernels in premium markets like Italy, France, and Spain. The country’s advanced logistics and stringent quality controls ensure that walnuts meet EU standards, making it a critical link in the supply chain.

Germany faces challenges from declining domestic production and competition from emerging exporters, but its established trade networks and focus on value-added products like walnut oil and flour sustain its market presence. The EU’s 31% share of global walnut imports underscores Germany’s strategic importance as a distribution center.

Emerging Exporters: New Players on the Global Stage

Beyond the dominant players, several emerging exporters are reshaping the walnut market. Countries like Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan, and Ukraine are gaining traction due to favorable climates, government support, and increasing global demand. Moldova exported USD 39.5 million in walnuts in 2023, with its high-quality nuts gaining popularity in Europe. Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan have seen export growth of 513.3% and 48.5% respectively since 2019, driven by investments in orchard planting and processing facilities. Ukraine, despite a 44.5% export decline due to geopolitical challenges, remains a notable supplier to Europe and the Middle East.

These emerging exporters face hurdles such as meeting stringent quality standards, securing certifications, and managing post-harvest logistics. However, government initiatives, foreign investments, and a focus on organic and sustainable practices are helping them carve out a niche. For instance, Moldova’s adoption of traceability mechanisms has boosted its access to premium markets, while Kyrgyzstan’s low-cost production appeals to price-sensitive buyers.

Key Supplying Nations: Regional Dynamics

North America

North America, led by the U.S. and Mexico, accounted for 48.6% of global walnut exports by value in 2023, totaling USD 1.5 billion. The region’s dominance is driven by advanced agricultural technologies, strong trade agreements, and proximity to major markets. The U.S. focuses on high-value shelled walnuts, while Mexico supplies both shelled and in-shell varieties. Canada, though not a major exporter, plays a role in regional demand, relying heavily on U.S. supply chains for its snack and bakery sectors.

Asia

Asia, led by China, contributed 21.9% of global walnut exports in 2023. The region’s rapid growth is fueled by expanding production and rising demand in urban areas, particularly in China, India, and Japan. India’s walnut imports grew at a 25% CAGR over the past five years, reflecting its increasing health-conscious consumer base. Emerging exporters like Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan are also boosting Asia’s export capacity, particularly to the Middle East and Europe.

Europe

Europe accounted for 14.8% of global walnut exports in 2023, with Germany and Moldova as key players. The region’s high import demand, particularly from the EU (31% of global imports), drives its role as a re-export hub. European consumers prioritize quality and sustainability, pushing exporters to adopt eco-friendly practices and certifications. Countries like Ukraine and Serbia are emerging as suppliers, leveraging their proximity to EU markets.

Latin America

Latin America, led by Chile, contributed 14.4% to global walnut exports in 2023. Chile’s counter-seasonal production and focus on quality make it a vital supplier to Asia and Europe. Emerging players like Argentina are also investing in walnut production, supported by government grants and favorable climates, to capture a share of the growing market.

Challenges and Opportunities in the Walnut Export Market

The global walnut export market faces several challenges, including climate variability, trade barriers, and competition from other nuts like almonds and pistachios. Droughts, frosts, and pests can significantly impact yields, as seen in Chile’s 2024 production drop and California’s reduced acreage. Trade policies, such as tariffs imposed by India and Turkey on U.S. walnuts, complicate market access, while rising input costs for labor, irrigation, and logistics strain profitability.

However, opportunities abound. The growing demand for organic and sustainable walnuts, particularly in Europe and North America, offers premium pricing for certified producers. Innovations in processing, such as air-jet sorters and low-oxygen packaging, enhance quality and shelf life, appealing to high-value markets. Emerging markets in Asia and Africa, driven by rising disposable incomes and health awareness, present untapped potential for exporters. Additionally, the rise of e-commerce platforms is enabling producers to reach global consumers directly, boosting sales of specialty and value-added walnut products.

The global walnut export market is poised for modest growth, with a projected CAGR of 4-5% through 2026, potentially reaching 500,000 metric tons in export volume. Key trends include:

• Shelled Walnuts Dominance: Shelled walnuts are expected to grow at an 8.1% CAGR to 2030, driven by demand for ready-to-eat products in snack bars, cereals, and nut butters.
• Sustainability and Organic Production: Consumers’ preference for eco-friendly and organic walnuts is pushing exporters to adopt sustainable farming practices and certifications.
• Emerging Markets: Asia and the Middle East, particularly India, the UAE, and Egypt, are driving demand, with CAGRs of 25%, 18%, and 7.9% respectively.
• Value-Added Products: Walnut-based products like oils, flours, and plant-based milk are expanding market reach, catering to health-conscious and vegan consumers.
• Technological Advancements: Investments in processing technologies, such as optical graders and vacuum packaging, are improving quality and competitiveness.

The global walnut export market is a complex and competitive landscape, dominated by powerhouses like the United States, China, Chile, Mexico, and Germany, while emerging exporters like Moldova and Kyrgyzstan add diversity and dynamism. These nations leverage their unique strengths—climate, technology, and trade networks—to meet growing global demand for walnuts. Despite challenges like climate variability and trade barriers, the market’s future is bright, driven by health-conscious consumers, sustainable practices, and innovations in processing and distribution. As the walnut industry continues to evolve, exporters who prioritize quality, sustainability, and market diversification will thrive in this lucrative global trade.